Kadima: On the Clock

On a day when much of the world focused on a global economic free-fall, the main party in Israel's governing coalition voted for a new leader Wednesday. Exit polls showed foreign minister Tzipi Livni leading Transport minister Shaul Mofaz by a comfortable margin of 48% to 37%, and was headed to replace outgoing PM Ehud Olmert. The Kadima party has about 74,000 members who could vote in the election, although reports indicated that only about 1 in 5 turned out at the polls. 

Ms Livni ran a campaign which highlighted her intense involvement with the Palestinian peace process and a plan to target government corruption. Her reputation stood in contrast to the more hawkish Mr Mofaz, who commanded Israeli military forces against the second Intifada in 2000. Both ministers were looking to follow the embattled Mr Olmert, who announced plans to step down in July. The prime minister faced increasing criticism for his handling of Israel's war with Hezbollah in 2006, and was formally indicted on two counts of misusing government funds. 

Ms Livni's victory means she could become the first female PM since Golda Meir resigned from office in 1974. Still, there are some significant hurdles to clear. According to Israeli President Shimon Peres, Ms Livni has 42 days to cobble together a ruling coalition that commands at least 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset legislature. Recent political infighting has convinced many analysts that Ms Livni will be unable to hold together such an alliance. If she fails, Israel would likely face another round of elections in six months that could reshape its political landscape.

The Kadima Party was founded in 2005 by Ariel Sharon, after the former PM broke away from his right-wing Likud Party. Most commentators agree that the political spectrum in Israel is largely determined by attitudes toward the occupied territories in Gaza and the West Bank. Mr Sharon argued that in order for Israel to remain a viable state in the Arab world, it was necessary to dismantle Jewish settlements and disengage from the territories. Such concessions roiled conservatives and led to the foundation of the new "center-left" party. 

Because of the Palestinian issue, both Mr Olmert and Ms Livni, who was a former Mossad agent, came over from Likud during the initial split. In contrast, Mr Mofaz initially rejected Mr Sharon's invitation to join Kadima, but ultimately bowed to his PM in late 2005. Mr Mofaz is indeed much closer to Likud; he opposes any deal with Syria that would give up the Golan Heights and is unwilling to negotiate on the final status of Jerusalem with Palestinians. While these positions certainly compromised Mr Mofaz within Kadima, his hardline is better suited to coalition-building with Israel's conservative politicians.

While the Palestinian issue is effectively definitional for Kadima, actual peace negotiations are likely to lose momentum in the wake of the election. Domestic politics and the typical horse-trading with fringe elements of the Israeli government will no doubt dominate Ms Livni's agenda. More importantly, it is hard to imagine that Mr Olmert's credibility in the negotiations will extend much longer. On Tuesday, the outgoing prime minister met again with Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, to discuss the core issues of a peace deal. 

These regular meetings started in November 2007, although there is little to show for the efforts. Mr Abbas and his Fatah party are undermined by the violent whims of Hamas, and Mr Olmert (technically still a caretaker of the Israeli government) is no longer a true power broker. Indeed, if Israel does move to snap elections, current support levels indicate that Binyamin Netanyahu, the opposition Likud leader, would control the government. The shadow of Mr Netanyahu's uncompromising stance on the Palestinians already looms over the peace process.

This is not to say that an agreement is impossible. Indeed, the Bush administration is trying desperately to orchestrate a deal before the end of the year. Mr Olmert, no doubt to salvage his own reputation, is pushing for a "shelf" or "interim" agreement to be worked out with the Palestinians. Rushing such a critical peace deal is no way to save face. If American officials are concerned about a return to the hardline Likud policies, they should work to strengthen the current coalition, not the political reprobate Mr Olmert has become. The current domestic unpredictability in Israel (long since a reality for the Palestinians) is hardly the sort of climate needed for a lasting deal. For now, regarding the peace agreement, no news is good news.