Old Foes Return To Unseat Mbeki

The rumblings started more than a week ago in Pietermaritzberg. On September 12, South Africa's High Court ruled that corruption charges against ANC president Jacob Zuma were invalid on procedural grounds. Judge Chris Nicholson ripped into President Thabo Mbeki and the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) for colluding in a politically motivated vendetta against Mr Zuma. The decision touched off a raucous celebration from Mr Zuma's supporters and a week of political pressure that forced Mr Mbeki to resign this past weekend. 

The case, still unresolved, has hung like a dark cloud over South African politics since 2004. The following year, Mr Zuma's business partner, Schabir Shaik, was convicted on fraud and corruption charges relating to a $5b South African arms procurement deal in the late 1990s. The imbroglio led Mr Mbeki to dismiss his deputy president in mid-2005 and produced a series of embarrassing setbacks for the country's judiciary. In September 2006, the NPA was denied a postponement after the prosecution was repeated unprepared for trial. While the most recent decision offers no position on Mr Zuma's guilt or innocence, the ruling clears the way for him to become president in next summer's presidential elections. 

Relieved of parliamentary duties three years ago, Mr Zuma has since reëmerged as a dominant figure in South African politics. Last December, he was elected President of the ruling ANC party, dealing a bitter defeat to Mr Mbeki who had held the post since 1997. In many ways, Mr Zuma's victory was a sign of the increasing frustration directed at South Africa's president. While Mr Mbeki arrived as the hand-picked and widely praised successor of Nelson Mandela, he recently lost the support of the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the powerful trade union movement, Cosatu. These political factions comprise the formal alliance of the governing ANC, and have increasingly shifted their loyalties to Mr Zuma. 

Although he was a former member of the SACP, Mr Mbeki instituted more conventional economic reforms in an effort to increase the country's prosperity. Indeed, tight fiscal policies, more liberalized trade agreements, and greater privatization have helped annual growth rates reach 5% in recent years. These advances, however significant for South Africa, were not enough to win over the support of party members who felt their core values had been trampled. 

Perhaps the most important factor in Mr Mbeki's resignation was his legion of political adversaries. In addition to his alleged political interference with Mr Zuma's case, Mr Mbeki accused three of the ANC's most respected leaders of subversion in 2001. Former ANC secretary-general Cyril Ramaphosa and former provincial premiers Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa were marginalized in a bizarre, and still controversial, move by Mr Mbeki. No evidence was ever presented, and no charges were ever filed, but the episode changed the political landscape within South Africa.

Nevertheless, as with Mr Zuma, these figures resurfaced. Mr Phosa is currently the ANC Treasurer General and Messrs Sexwale and Ramaphosa are part of the 86-member National Executive Committee (NEC), which voted to oust Mr Mbeki this past weekend. No doubt their influence was used to settle an old political score.

On Monday, sources within the ANC tipped Kgalema Motlanthe as the overwhelming favorite to become South Africa's caretaker president. If confirmed on Thursday, Mr Motlanthe would suddenly become one of the most powerful figures on the continent, quite a rise for the MP who was only elected in May. Mr Motlanthe is a strong ally of Mr Zuma, however, and it is likely that he will act as a figurehead for the ANC president until elections early next year.

These are difficult times for South Africa. Mr Mbeki's demise was predictable, but not at this rate. Many observers were still expecting Mr Zuma's legal troubles to forestall his ascendancy, which might have allowed the outgoing president to appoint his own successor. Instead, it appears the country is hurtling towards a dramatic change in leadership. 

Aside from his own checkered past, which include charges of rape and alarming views about HIV and AIDS, Mr Zuma has some unsavory supporters. ANC Youth League leader, Julius Malema, has been an outspoken critic of the current administration and said in June, "We are prepared to die for Zuma. We are prepared to take up arms and kill for Zuma." The remarks were parodied by radio disk jockeys and brushed aside by parliamentary figures. Given recent events, however, the message is harrowing.

Should Mr Zuma become president, he will inherit a country that is facing drastic power shortages, alarming levels of violent crime, a full-blown HIV/AIDS epidemic, and an unstable neighbor in Zimbabwe. The Court's September 12 ruling claimed that Mr Zuma's corruption charges were part of "some great political contest or game." On the contrary, Mr Nicholson, the matter is much more serious.