Fool Zim Once...

Zimbabweans are watching their country move in fits and starts towards a power-sharing agreement between President Robert Mugabe and top opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. For all those expecting such a deal to end the country's economic privation, history provides a sobering example to the contrary.

In 1980, after Zimbabwe gained independence from Britain, Mr Mugabe faced another political rival in Joshua Nkomo. A revolutionary of comparable pedigree, Mr Nkomo emerged as an alternative leader of the liberation government. His opposition ZAPU party enraged Mr Mugabe who waged a brutal five-year campaign of suppression against its supporters. Mr Mugabe went so far as to dispatch the Fifth brigade of his security forces (a unit trained by the North Koreans) to Mr Nkomo's popular stronghold in Matabeleland. From 1982-1987, an estimated 10,000 civilians were murdered and cast into mass graves.

Ultimately in 1987, Mr Mugabe crafted the woefully misnamed Unity Accord, which struck a power-sharing agreement with Mr Nkomo. According to the agreement, ZAPU was absorbed into Mr Mugabe's then-ZANU party to forge the now-recognizable Zanu-PF party. In reality, Mr Nkomo became an impotent vice president and his party was eliminated from Zimbabwean politics. No doubt Mr Nkomo, who died in 1999, would be wary of the rhetorical optimism surrounding current negotiations.

In recent days of discussion, both Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai have commented on positive developments. While the parties have agreed in principle to the need for a power-sharing agreement, both sides are trying to jockey for control of the government. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) would like to see the current president serve as the ceremonial head of the government, while increasing the power of Mr Tsvangirai, the executive prime minister.

The political enervation of Mr Mugabe seems unlikely. At 84, the former revolutionary hero is a stubborn dictator who has expressed interest in forming his own government apart from the MDC. Moreover, many of Mr Mugabe's recent political appointments (in his cabinet and in parliament) suggest the president has no interest in following the spirit or letter of an agreement he signed opposition leaders in July. Given these developments, it will take a lot more than perfunctory announcements of diplomatic headway to convince analysts that Zimbabwe is on the road to recovery.

Indeed, American and European leaders are not convinced by the existing deal, with some calling for Mr Tvangirai to scupper the power-sharing agreement. While many foreign governments and aid agencies are eager to help Zimbabwe, there is stifling reluctance to provide any capital that might strengthen Mr Mugabe's hand. The policy is well-intentioned: wait for the thuggish dictator to leave, then flood the country with food, fuel, and infrastructure to combat hyperinflation. Unfortunately for Mr Tsvangirai, such alliances with the West are potentially compromising. In a shrewd twist, Mr Mugabe submits these global connections are evidence his rival will serve foreign interests. 

It is a tired trick, however, and one that is unlikely to resonate among ordinary Zimbabweans. In March, the MDC won control of the lower house of parliament and in August the MDC chairman Lovemore Moyo beat out Mr Mugabe's personal choice to become house speaker. Nevertheless, Mr Tsvangirai is facing increased pressure from regional forces to sign a power-sharing deal. South African President Thabo Mbeki, Mr Mugabe, and Arthur Mutambara (leader of the minority faction of the MDC) all favor an imminent agreement. 

For his part, Mr Mbeki, who has pursued a spineless and politically illiterate solution to the Zimbabwean crisis, wants to strike a deal before his term ends next year. Waiting in the wings is the improbable ANC President Jacob Zuma, who has taken a much harsher line against the current regime in neighboring Zimbabwe. If Messrs Mbeki and Mugabe, who are personal friends, want to solve this impasse, the clock is running.

Cracks in Mr Mugabe's power are no indication that he will leave any time soon. As seen in Kenya's 2007 elections, power-sharing agreements can be ugly and violent. And it should be noted the PM Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki (the protagonists in that electoral drama) were essentially colleagues and not historic rivals, as in Zimbabwe. 

Without question, Zimbabwe needs to be freed from Mr Mugabe. But the SADC cannot simply pursue "quiet diplomacy" and expect him to walk away from the land he once inspired with such hope. Regional leaders must themselves threaten a date with the ICC in order to entice Mr Mugabe into a lucrative sunset program.  

On July 30, in an effort to deal with seven-digit inflation, the Zimbabwean central bank redenominated its currency cutting 10 zeros off its Z$5 tn notes. Such slapdash measures certainly won't fix the economy and there is likewise no easy was to get rid of Mr Mugabe.