Cross-Border Complications

The Af-Pak border region has an impressive legacy of political turbulence. During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, millions of refugees spilled over into neighboring Pakistan and the Northwest Frontier Province served as a major weapons cache for the Mujahideen. More recently, the US war in Afghanistan has now focused its military resources in this treacherous region.

Before former President Pervez Mursharraf resigned on August 18, the US enjoyed the rhetorical commitment from Pakistan to fight Taliban forces within its borders. While it is generally understood that Mr Musharraf's involvement in the regional war on terror was tepid (his policies exacerbated rising domestic unpopularity), Washington had effectively forced his hand into coöperating with the American agenda. For this, many Pakistanis saw their general-turned-president as a feckless, if authoritarian, leader. No surprise then that the country was overjoyed to see the back of Mr Musharraf.

Careful what you wish for. In recent days, the US has conducted a number of controversial cross-border raids in the North Waziristan tribal areas. Frustrated by the deteriorating political climate in Islamabad, American forces have stepped up unilateral strikes against Taliban and al Qaeda targets. But these attacks have generated considerable resentment from the new Pakistani government. The parliament has passed an official resolution condemning the recent assaults and has filed a complaint with US ambassador William Wood. 

American forces have long claimed the right to pursue militants into Pakistan when in "hot pursuit," but such a distinction seems increasingly vague. On the record, the US military has not changed its strategy in the region; however, senior Pentagon officials have confirmed a more aggressive approach in Pakistan. In the last week, the parliament has held debate on the increased use of US Predator drones, ground troops, and helicopter-borne raids. 

This harsh line from Washington risks a serious blowback. Indeed, many analysts claim that such behavior potentially alienates a valuable ally in the war on terror. Both houses of the Pakistani parliament asked the government to "repel such attacks in the future with full force." While it is unlikely that the Pakistani Army would enter into hot conflicts with US troops, Islamabad could make the Northwest Frontier a much more unsavory region.

Saturday's parliamentary election will surely focus on the violence wrought by American forces in Waziristan. But the election will also remind voters of the internecine violence that killed Benazir Bhutto in December. Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto's widow, is poised to become the Pakistan's next President as ruler of the PPP. In many ways Mr Zardari is an unlikely leader and who has yet to prove he can rescue his country from the brink of disaster. With an economy in shambles (foreign currency reserves have all but dried up), a more dangerous Taliban insurgency, and rising tensions with nuclear armed India. 

Zardari will have one valuable asset with which to govern: a democratic mandate. But his skills as an executive will surely be tested by the still-powerful military and an oft-autonomous spy agency (Inter-Services Intelligence). Pakistanis are finally free from the clutches of Mr Musharraf, but their future is in no secure hand.