Tit for Tat Diplomacy

In Venzuela, stories about presidential assassination plots are nothing new. Over the last six years alone, President Hugo Chavez has claimed at least 26 times to local media that he is the target of such machinations. In his most recent allegation, however, the fiery Mr Chavez has singled out the US ambassador, Patrick Duddy, for leading an American-backed coup. 

On Thursday, Mr Chavez gave the US envoy 72 hours to leave Caracas and delivered the latest in his string of bitter diatribes against the Bush administration. Mr Chavez is certainly capable of venturing into such diplomatic spats on his own, but he appears to be joining an ongoing row between the US and regional ally Bolivia. Indeed, Mr Chavez has pledged support for Bolivian President Evo Morales who recently declared the American envoy to La Paz persona non grata.

Mr Morales claimed that ambassador Philip Goldberg had been supporting opposition groups in the eastern part of his country. Here, in the Santa Cruz department, Mr Morales' social and political reforms have touched off unrest. The region is rich in natural gas, and the revenues from such fossil fuels are subject to a new tax under a government plan to redistribute the country's economic wealth.

There are historic divisions between the resource-blessed and revenue-generating lowlands and the indigenous poor highlands. As the left-leaning Mr Morales engages in an ambitious project of land reform, he faces stiffening opposition in eastern Bolivia. Youth movements have blocked roads, occupied buildings, and crippled the regional energy and aviation infrastructure. As of yet, Mr Morales has refrained from using the military and relied instead on pro-government mobs to blockade the rioters. Certainly this approach is untenable in the long term.

More pressing, however, is the lowland rebel attack on Wednesday, which bombed a critical pipeline in Tarija state. As a result, natural gas exports to neighboring Brazil have been cut by 3m cubic meters per day (about 10% of capacity). Comgas, Brazil's largest natural gas distributor, said that none of its clients were effected by disturbances in the supply chain, but the company gets about 70% of its natural gas from Bolivia. Continued political protests could metastasize into an energy crisis for the region.

The noxious political climate between the US and Venezuela has only deteriorated in recent days. On Friday the US Treasury announced sanctions against 2 senior Venezuelan officials who were accused of "materially assisting" the FARC rebels in Colombia. Recall that in May Interpol found evidence on a seized computer in Ecuador that established an official link between Caracas and the rebel group. In addition, the US also planned to expel Venezuelan envoy Bernardo Álvarez in response to Mr Chavez' move on Thursday.

It is unlikely the Bush administration will work to repair such relations in the last few weeks of the term. But Mr Chavez did explain that he would send an ambassador to the US once a new government is inaugurated in January. Candidates Barak Obama and John McCain should have a plan when they inevitably restart political relations with Caracas. The US imports $40b in oil from Venezuela (America's fourth largest supplier), and the two countries reached bilateral trade levels of $50b in 2007. 

After oil, the US needs Venezuela's help with another addiction: cocaine. American officials are increasingly worried about narcotics trafficking that runs from Colombia, through Venezuelan airports, and into major US cities. So far, election campaigning in the US has focused on the economy and the Middle East. It would behoove both men to let their gaze stray across the Caribbean as well.