Russia Moving Out of Buffer Zones, Sort Of

The most recent reports from the Caucasus confirm that Russian troops have dismantledmost of the checkpoints that had formed unilateral buffer zones around Abkhazia and South Ossetia. EU monitors will now regulate the ceasefire between Georgia and Russia, a week after some its teams were unable to reach the disputed territories. This move comes ahead of the Friday deadline for withdrawal, as established in the French-brokered deal. 

The standoff is far from resolved, however. The Caucasus remains a combustible region, and tensions over the August war are still simmering. On Friday, a car bomb exploded in South Ossetia killing seven Russian soldiers. According to Russian officials, the vehicle was one of two cars that had been stopped at a checkpoint in the village of Ditsa, about 3 miles from the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinavli. The four Georgians in the convoy were arrested for possession of light firearms and grenades, while the vehicles were taken to the Russian military base in Tskhinvali. During a further search of the vehicles, an explosive device ripped through the checkpoint.

In response to the incident, both Georgians and Russians blamed each other for the attack. In Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry spoke of a "deliberately planned terrorist attack," in which the Georgians hoped to spoil the EU-sponsored peace. Meanwhile, Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said that the attack was organized by Russian forces to create a pretext for delaying their withdrawal. 

At this point, it is still unclear who orchestrated the bombing. For weeks the Russians have refused to pull back some 8,000 troops in the buffer zones around the breakaway republics. Their tepid embrace of the ceasefire, coupled with the Kremlin's hard line on foreign policy, suggest the Russians are unlikely partners in the effort to establish peace and security in the region.

On the other hand, the attack resembles an earlier episode in South Ossetia. Back in May, a car loaded with explosives blew up near police headquarters in Tskhinvali, injuring six people. At the time, South Ossetian police produced evidence that the vehicle had been purchased by unidentified suspects in Georgia. Eduard Kokoity, president of the breakaway republic, railed against the Tbilisi government for state-level terrorism aimed at escalating tensions in the region.

With the Russian withdrawal, it appears that Friday's attack is, for the moment, a bit of old news. Nevertheless, should any complications arise between Russian and Georgian forces, last week's finger-wagging could turn into a more serious dispute. As Russian troops vacated a checkpoint in Ergneti, Georgian forces raced in to raise the national flag and start a bonfire. Under normal circumstances these may be harmless gestures. With heavily armed Russians and South Ossetian militiamen watching, they are cause for concern.

The recent financial crisis will divert attention away from such developments, but instability in the Caucasus may flare up yet again. On Tuesday, Iceland's PM Geir Haarde announced that his NATO-member country would be receiving a $5.43b loan from Moscow to aid its ailing economy. With its massive currency reserves, Russia may well position itself as a vital creditor to governments in Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, etc). These financial moves could buy the Kremlin some political leeway when it comes to dealing with restive states in the Caucasus.

On Wednesday, Georgian police officials said that two Russian soldiers almost missed their unit's withdrawal after getting drunk. According to reports, the soldiers had been drinking heavily and asked their arresting officers, "Where are we?" Given the disputed borders, some level of confusion might be forgiven. Nevertheless, alcohol is the last ingredient this conflict needs.