09 February 2009

The Munich Security Conference and Future US Diplomacy


The 45th Munich Security Conference proved to be one of the more exciting gatherings of top- and supreme-level politicians in the event's recent history. In contrast to the melancholy tone of the economic summit in Davos, about 300 security officials from across the globe came to Germany this past weekend with high hopes for diplomacy.

The event marked the first real opportunity for the new administration in Washington to outline its foreign policy objectives. Accordingly, President Barack Obama sent his VP Joe Biden to address the conference in a highly anticipated speech on Saturday. Mr Biden's introduction was welcomed with great applause and effusive handshakes, a clear sign that much of the world has been waiting to see fresh faces in the White House.

Pleasantries are one thing, policies are quite another. Mr Biden's opening remarks were certainly more conciliatory than similar statements under Bush administration officials, as he spoke of an American "renewal project" with old friends and recent adversaries. With respect to specific security challenges facing the US, however, the Vice President reaffirmed many of the hard-line positions that have heretofore vexed the international community. Speaking about relations with Russia, Mr Biden stated that, "The United States will not -- will not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence."

Before the speech, White House aides said that Mr Biden would announce the administration's willingness to reconsider a planned missile-defense system in Eastern Europe. Under the Bush administration, the US was slated to install weapons in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic that could intercept a nuclear attack from Iran and North Korea. For the Kremlin, however, these measures were thought to encroach upon Russia's near-abroad. In the week before the Munich conference, it seemed that Mr Obama, who is determined to restore relations with Moscow, would not push for the defense shield. Once Kyrgyzstan announced it would likely close its American military base (a move Russia is thought to have orchestrated), Mr Biden's speech was changed. He notably added a line saying the US "will continue to develop missile defense to counter the growing Iranian capability."

Even with this lingering standoff, Russian deputy premier Sergei Ivanov said that Mr Biden's speech was "very positive." His own remarks at the conference signaled the potential for greater communication and coöperation between Washington and Moscow. What is more, there are still politically viable ways for the US to back out of the missile defense shield without looking weak. With a $10 billion per year price tag, the system could (and certainly should) be scrapped for economic reasons.

Nevertheless, the Russian exchange demonstrates that many of the Bush-era frustrations cannot be solved with rehotic alone. As his Vice President explained, Mr Obama will ask European leaders for greater commitments to NATO forces in Afghanistan, which special envoy Richard Holbrooke recently described as "a long, difficult struggle." In addition, the Obama administration is likely to put pressure on the EU to support infrastructure development and democracy promotion across the border in Pakistan. For leaders with financial strains and war-weary electorates, American requests are no more agreeable than they were under George Bush.

Still, Mr Obama's rehabilitative efforts must count for something. The president's commitment to multilateralism lends credibility to his diplomatic efforts. The Bush administration made significant nominal changes to foreign policy during its second term, but few foreign leaders took them seriously. See the Iranian example. On Saturday, Mr Biden offered Tehran a familiar choice: "Continue down the current course and there will be continued pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism, and there will be meaningful incentives." This policy doesn't sound much different than 6 months or 2 years ago. But British Foreign Secretary said that there is a genuine commitment among the new American administration to put direct talks with the Iranian regime on the table.

The next major foreign policy stage for the US is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Asia, where she will visit capitals in Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo, and Jakarta. The fact that her first trip is not to Europe or the Middle East simply demonstrates how many issues US diplomatic efforts must address.

1 comment:

Robert Goodmind said...

as a mccain supporter all i would say is lets see how warm the reception is for biden in 2 years.

He has nothing to offer Europe other than smiles.