Looking to Iran for Afghan Supply Routes

Early Tuesday morning, militants in Pakistan bombed a major supply route in the Khyber Pass, about 25 miles northwest of Peshawar. Roughly three-quarters of the supplies destined for NATO troops in Afghanistan are transported through this mountainous region, and the attack highlighted the need for alternative support routes. Pakistani officials said the destroyed bridge would take some time to repair, but a NATO spokesman said there was no risk of a supply shortage.

Most of the food, equipment, and fuel that is needed in Afghanistan first arrives at the Pakistani port in Karachi. These supplies are then transported to the Khyber Pass, where they are trucked through perilous terrain into the Afghan border town of Torkham. Over the past several months, insurgents have launched multiple attacks against the Khyber Pass supply route, hoping to disrupt the US-led mission against the Taliban. The region is part of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, known for heavy weapons and Taliban sympathizers.

As an immediate reprieve, NATO supplies will likely pass through a more southern crossing in Baluchistan, which connects the Pakistani town of Chaman with Kandahar in Afghanistan. Still there is mounting concern among NATO commanders that these routes are insufficient for supplying the mission in Afghanistan. President Barack Obama has signaled his desire to send three additional brigades to Afghanistan (some 10,000-12,000 troops) by mid-summer, and boost forces by another 30,000 in the next 12-18 months. Such an increase in the force level would demand massive logistical support, which the existing supply routes cannot sustain.

The US military is undoubtedly aware of these constraints. Last month, the chief of US Central Command, General David Patraeus, said that agreements had been reached with Russia and Central Asian states to secure new supply lines (though he provided few details). Other than neighboring Pakistan, the following countries share a border with Afghanistan: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China, and Iran. Regional ports include Georgian docks on the Black Sea or Turkmen docks on the Caspian Sea.

It would be difficult to imagine a list of countries and way-stations with greater diplomatic complications. All of these states are wary of the great political chess match between Russia and the West, and connections to NATO could upset the Kremlin. Few analysts suggest that Russia wants to disrupt the Afghan mission, but Moscow could extract major concessions from the Americans (regional influence) and Europeans (natural gas prices) alike. As a result, this week has seen a dramatic turn in US relations with another regional power: Iran.

On Monday, NATO's top military commander, US General John Craddock, said that alliance members were free to negotiate with Tehran. Not surprisingly, this announcement marks a considerable break from the preëxisting strategy in Afghanistan. In years past, American officials claimed Taliban insurgents were using Iranian weapons, however, the tone has dramatically changed since Mr Obama took office. While it is unlikely the US will use Iran's transport routes any time soon, NATO members with good Iranian relations could benefit from the alternative supply lines. Most analysts expect Germany, France, and Italy to use the Char Bahar port in southeastern Iran.

Route security is an important factor in promoting Afghan stability in the short term. Indeed, many of the additional NATO troops will be used to protect truck convoys, police major highways, and improve transportation throughout the country. These measures are essential in building the necessary infrastructure on which Western forces are hoping to build a viable state. Still, there are many political challenges to come. Any successful strategy in Afghanistan will have to incentivize rival factions to participate in some sort of power-sharing agreement.

In all likelihood, such diplomacy will require the inclusion of the Taliban or Taliban elements (as with Sunni insurgents in Iraq). During this delicate process, the Obama administration's negotiating skills will certainly be tested. Fortunately, the recent announcement on Iran shows a deft understanding of the realities in Central Asia.