Mexico: The Border War

In Thursday's speech honoring the army's founding, Mexican President Felipe Calderón defended his decision to pursue military solutions to the country's violent drug war. Brutal clashes between armed drug smugglers accounted for more than 6,000 deaths in Mexico last year, and the 2009 pace is unabated. In response, Mr Calderón has sent more than 45,000 troops to battle Mexican cartels and patrol the most dangerous regions of the country.

The levels of violence in Mexico are staggering. The painful realities of narco-trafficking have long afflicted Mexican society, however, starting last year, there has been a remarkable escalation in the drug war. In September, a grenade attack in Michoacán State killed eight civilians and wounded some 100 more. Last month, another grenade killed a child as armed attackers gunned down two adults in Durango. On February 17, a major firefight broke out in Reynosa between Mexican authorities and armed members of a drug cartel. According to reports, government officials recovered RPG rounds and mortar rounds.

There is no doubt that the lethality of cartel attacks has increased dramatically since 2007. In addition to the heavy weapons used in the Reynosa standoff, smugglers are now using fragmentation grenades and assault rifles to assert their control in Mexico. Escalating violence and the impotence of the central government demonstrate that there is an active war in the country. More specifically, there are three wars.

First, rival drug cartels are fighting one another. While the picture of violence is increasingly dynamic, Mexican cartels are battling over regional supply routes into the US. In Baja California, the Sinaloa cartel is fighting the formerly-dominant Tijuana cartel. The Sinaloa cartel is also fighting a horrific battle against the Gulf cartel for the western Texas supply routes, and there is a multi-cartel struggle for the central Juárez-El Paso route. Control over these major Interstate corridors into the American drug market is an essential part of the billion-dollar narcotics industry.

Second, there is a war between the Mexican government and the cartels. Mr Calderón's two-year offensive against drug traffickers has been widely ineffective, and the resulting violence has put Mexican civilians in the crossfire. Brazen attacks against government officials and local police have convinced many observers that the situation is spiraling out of control. Earlier this month, Mexican drug gangs took over police radio frequencies, issuing death threats (some of which they then carried out) to uncoöperative authorities. In January, a Pentagon report concluded that Mexico was at risk of becoming a "failed state," and could face a full-scale collapse of civil government. Local officials rejected such analysis, but it is clear that Mr Calderón's war on drugs is backsliding.

Third, the alarming rise in civilian kidnappings in Mexico signals a war among the population. To be sure, cartels are often involved in abducting, torturing, and killing high level government officials or rival drug traffickers. But kidnappings appear to happen all across the country (not only in narco-zones) and are perpetrated by a range of actors. Some criminal gangs have developed complex strategies to abduct high-net-worth targets and command million-dollar ransom payments. Other more rudimentary criminals, target ordinary Mexicans in a short-term effort to drain their ATM accounts or extract modest ransom fees. This form of "express kidnapping" has a paralyzing effect on the Mexican population. Similar to terrorism, this war does not target institutional actors, but courses through the daily lives of average citizens.

One year ago today, then-Senator Barack Obama promised to repair the US relationship with Mexico. He made direct reference to the problem of drug cartels, but his solutions were broad and unspecific. Such politicking is to be expected from a candidate, but it will be interesting to see how Mr Obama's policies develop as president. Clearly, the new administration's focus is on the American economy. Nevertheless, the US-Mexico trade relationship is valued at more than $300 billion (the third largest of America's economic partnerships) and will be important to any sort of recovery.

Make no mistake, the violence in Mexico is as much an economic threat as it is a security challenge. Unfortunately, the level of corruption in Mexico (a function of the cartels' infiltration of government offices) means that the country cannot solve its drug problem alone. Indeed, the Mexican drug war is likely to be in an important part of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs next month. In reality, though, it will be an American problem before anyone else's outside Mexico. There is a war on the US border, and Mr Obama will have to help craft a solution.