Soldiers looted the bank, smashing windows and harassing employees, and then moved on to assault black-market currency traders in Harare. President Robert Mugabe has stubbornly driven his country into blighting poverty, but until now, the rank-and-file have largely been insulated from pronounced hardships. Rampant cronyism and political payoffs have shifted the strains of hyperinflation away from Mr Mugabe's inner circle and onto Zimbabwe's beleaguered citizens. Sunday's riot, however, sends a strong message that the regime is losing control over the ever-important military.
Soldiers have said there is no food in the barracks, no medical supplies at military hospitals, and increasing frustrations with Mr Mugabe's government. Reports indicate that thousands of desertions have depleted the military's numbers from some 40,000 to 26,000 troops. Mr Mugabe's rule is entirely dependent on these forces and their ability to hold populist uprisings at bay. If soldiers continue to bleed out into the growing pool of disaffected Zimbabweans, a more sustained revolt is in the cards.
To make a bleak situation even worse, much of Harare is without water and is facing a massive cholera outbreak. The disease comes from drinking contaminated water, and Zimbabwe has been suffering from a recent shortage in purification chemicals. Nearly 12,000 cases of cholera have been reported in the country, and the number of deaths is fast approaching 500. In a sign of the widening crisis, the disease is spreading to border towns in neighboring South Africa and Botswana.
Such medical outbreaks are placing even greater strain on limited resources. The South African constitution (one of the most progressive in the world) mandates that all citizens have adequate access to healthcare, a promise aid workers are struggling to meet. Zimbabwean refugees are flooding across the now-contaminated Limpopo River, which forms a natural border between South Africa and Zimbabwe. Back in May, South Africa witnessed violent anti-immigrant riots, many of which targeted Zimbabweans living in the country. The current health crisis could exacerbate existing social tensions.
At the very least, the Harare bank riot dispels any notion that the ruling Zanu-PF party can continue to ignore the opposition. Ever since Mr Mugabe's rival Morgan Tsvarangirai pulled his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) out of the impotent power-sharing agreement, Zanu-PF officials have attempted to consolidate their power. It appears the frightening realities of Zimbabwe have finally caught up with the country's notorious dictator. For so long, Mr Mugabe lived in a fantasy world where he willfully ignored the plight of those he ruled. With soldiers joining the chorus of dissent, Mr Mugabe must realize that his days are numbered.
Could the rising social unrest lead to a coup? Possibly. But Mr Mugabe still has an inner circle of fiercely loyal generals. In recent weeks, they have meted out harsh punishment against any soldiers suspected of defecting. There are reports that some of the soldiers who have taken part in recent riots have been killed. As a result, Western officials are instead predicting a state of "low-grade anarchy," as order crumbles and the military becomes unable to deal with unrest.
Leaders of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have proven spineless statesmen when dealing with Mr Mugabe. Their failings have turned misery into tragedy, as Zimbabwe plunges into ever-worsening circumstances. In response to the current cholera outbreak (but with eyes on the soldiers' riot) the SADC should call an emergency meeting to address the crisis in Zimbabwe.
As the disease leaks out into the region, heads of state will be forced to confront medical challenges. Let's hope they consider all the political ones as well.
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