The party got off to a rather inauspicious start, when it attempted to brand itself as the South African Democratic Congress. Within 24 hours, the party learned that Ziba Jiyane (a KwaZulu-Natal politician) had already registered the name with the Independent Electoral Commission. The party may instead embrace its popular nickname "Shikota," although discussions appear to be ongoing.
Some 6,000 delegates attended the conference in Johannesburg, a sign that South Africa may well witness real opposition politics for the first time since the end of Apartheid. Since the first all-race elections in 1994, the ANC has enjoyed overwhelming popular support and unmatched political power. To this point, the main opposition party has been the Democratic Alliance, which is widely dismissed by the country's black voters and holds only 10% of the seats in parliament.
The ANC split has been an ugly divorce, and it remains to be seen how the new party presents its platform to the South African electorate. Some analysts suggest that political fault lines are overlapping with tribal differences and personal rivalries. Ever since Nelson Mandela left office in 1999, the image of a Rainbow Nation has been fading fast. Now ethnic tensions threaten to flare up in the continent's most stable country. Jacob Zuma, the current head of the ANC and frontrunner in next year's presidential elections, has broad support among his own ethnic group, the Zulus. At the same time, many Xhosa supporters of Mr Mbeki feel as though their interests will be sidelined in the the ANC.
There is, unfortunately, a bitter nature to this political process. Personal vendettas wracked the ANC after the party's controversial meeting in Polokwane last December. At that congress, Mr Zuma ousted Mr Mbeki from the ranks of the ANC, and a wave of antipathy began to force out the former president's supporters as well. Indeed, the breakaway party has made no secret of the fact that it cannot live with the personalities in the ANC. For his part, Mr Zuma has not taken to the split kindly. While addressing a huge crowd in Soweto, the ANC president called the new party's members "snakes."
On real political issues, the two parties disagree over the direction of the economy. Messrs Lekota, Shilowa, and their followers assert that the pro-Zuma faction of the ANC is giving too much influence to the South African Communist Party and the powerful Cosatu trade union. They argue that bowing to such interests will forfeit recent gains in economic development.
Still, Mr Zuma's populist message has been gaining traction. While South Africa has enjoyed considerable growth as an emerging market under Mr Mbeki, many critics claim that the gains have failed to trickle down to the country's poor. Zuma supporters are playing up this divide. When the new party officially announced its candidacy from the up-market Johannesburg suburb of Sandton, the ANC quickly lambasted the plush setting.
In recent months, Mr Zuma has made the rounds with business leaders (foreign and domestic) promising not to make any radical changes to economic policy. Nevertheless, he will be under considerable pressure from his constituents to boost employment, slow privatization, and provide relief for those suffering in the country's sprawling shanty towns.
Regardless of whom South Africans elect, there are significant headwinds facing the economy. The country is a major exporter of BMW and Mercedes Benz, and the battered automotive has already seen a drop in sales, which could depress 2009 exports by up to 15%. South Africa also has a large industrial base and is a big commodities exporter, which create significant vulnerabilities in a global economic contraction.
Does a new party represent an evolution in South African democracy? In one sense, the top-down discipline of the ANC has finally been challenged, and there is at least the possibility of real debate on social and economic issues. And yet, if the new leadership fails to inspire supporters (and thus runs itself into political obscurity), it may well leave the ANC more powerful, monolithic, and with fewer voices of internal dissent.
As the election cycle finishes in the US, it now begins in South Africa. It is a similarly important vote, one which will show the trajectory of democracy in the Rainbow Nation.
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2 comments:
To what extent are the interests of the X'hosa and the Zulu (or any other ethnic, rather than economic, groups in South Africa) really mutually exclusive? Is it in terms of patronage, and who will have access to government jobs? I would think that both groups, as well as many other African ethnic groups, would stand to benefit, largely, from the same kinds of government policies. Or are there sharp economic differences that make their interests diverge?
Regardless, thanks for the primer on a post-Rainbow Nation South Africa! I feel hopeful for the emergence of an opposition party in the country.
I think this is a very interesting question. Economic plight in South Africa seems to be rather indiscriminate of ethnicity, as hardships can certainly be seen in the various Zulu and X'hosa regions of the country.
I think the issue within South African politics is more about the rise of ethnic nationalism. That is to say, the arguments are less about public policy (though there are differences in the economic platform) and more about claims of identity. The ANC had been led by Xhosa heavyweights since the days of Oliver Tambo, Nelson Mandela, and Thabo Mbeki. Now there is a Zulu leader in Zuma, and I suspect the controversial nature of his candidacy lends itself to ethnic divisions.
Supports claim that the ANC has been a X'hosa dynasty for too long and that the racketeering charges are a conspiracy to bring him down. Critics say that Zuma is playing on such ethnic identity (cf. American divisive politics) to spur his campaign. The ANC Youth League and Julius Malema appear to endorse the sort of Zulu/X'hosa divide, which paints a bleak picture for the election.
On balance I think progressive economic policies would help disadvantaged groups in SA about the same (Zulu, X'hosa, or otherwise). But at the moment, the power struggles within the ANC (which are as much personal as they are political) turn on ethnicity and thus they are projected to the electorate as questions of ethnic nationalism.
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