No Honeymoon For Obama

Well, that certainly didn't take long. Within hours of winning an historic election in the US, President-elect Barack Obama was staring at a slew of economic and foreign policy challenges. Much has been made of the problems that await the next administration, a complex cocktail of crises brewing at home and abroad. As Mr Obama receives his first security briefing today, the President-elect is surely aware that his administration will not be able to rest during the traditional "honeymoon period."

Following the election celebrations in Grant Park, Chicago, Mr Obama has received congratulatory calls from foreign leaders across the globe. Nevertheless, the buoyant mood has not stopped some premiers from expressing their demands (or thinly veiled threats) to the President-elect. 

On Wednesday, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made it clear that he would deploy Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania. The announcement comes in response to President George Bush's controversial plans to build a missile defense system in Poland. While many analysts have categorized Mr Medvedev's rhetoric as "tough-talk," it remains indicative of Russia's new swagger. Mr Obama will have to work with his counterparts in Europe (particularly NATO partners) to moderate rising tensions in former Soviet states. 

Also on Wednesday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai called on Mr Obama to end American airstrikes that have led to an alarming number of civilian casualties in his country. Ever since the August 22 bombing of Azizabad, a small village in northwest Afghanistan, Mr Karzai has faced increasing domestic pressure to stand up to American and NATO forces. That airstrike killed at least 30 civilians, according to a review by US Central Command, and led US General David McKiernan to order a decrease in the number of bombings by Western forces. Just this week, however, coalition forces allegedly killed dozens of Afghan civilians after an airstrike in the village of Sha Wali Kot, a Taliban stronghold.

During the election, Mr Obama made Afghanistan the cornerstone of his foreign policy agenda. The President-elect believes, rightly, that the hyphenated conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the real war on terror and will ask Europe to increase its military presence in Afghanistan. Across the Atlantic, many leaders found it easy to turn down such requests from the unpopular Mr Bush. Now with the man they want in office, European allies will be forced to coöperate with the US.

Even with greater support from NATO members, however, Afghanistan is a frightening mess. Mr Obama can commit more troops and more resources to the country, but he is likely to see limited success. The political realities on the ground spell a long and frustrating campaign for anyone who gets involved. A just war (as many have called the campaign in Afghanistan) is not necessarily a winnable war. If Mr Obama gets American and European troops bogged down in yet another endless conflict in the Middle East, his support will unwind rapidly.

Mr Obama has also promised to withdraw from Iraq and negotiate with the Iranians. Both are positive goals, but will require careful execution. Aside from the very real prospect of losing hard-earned security gains, there are complex political implications that follow from Mr Obama's strategy. On Thursday, Israel's Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni claimed that dialogue with Tehran could be seen as a sign of American weakness in the Middle East. Indeed both Israel and Saudi Arabia are worried about the rising power of Iran in the region, and will surely require the US to hedge any negotiations with strict security guarantees.

Newspaper reports hailed Mr Obama's victory as a landslide. But while his margin in the electoral college was resounding, the President-elect only won about 52% of the popular vote (barely more than Mr Bush in the 2004 election). Many of the challenges that now face Mr Obama will require difficult and perhaps unpopular solutions. His ability to build coalitions as a president must match the aplomb he showed as a candidate.

For the US, and indeed much of the world, Mr Obama's election is a powerful moment. Unfortunately, with all the problems that America faces, there is no time to celebrate.